As almost everybody knows, a black swan is a new term for an unexpected event that has major consequences. Like avian black swans, such events are rare. But when they hit, panic, overreaction, and demands for safety at any price tend to follow. Think of Wall Street in October of 1929.

Ukraine and its allies have been prepping the propaganda battlefield for months about Kiev’s big spring offensive, or counter-offensive if you prefer. The ghosts of Kursk have been gathering over the scene, warning about attacks which are predictable and made where the Russians have been able to prepare extensive defensive positions. This time, will the Leopard tank be what the Tiger Elephant was last time?

Over the years I’ve accumulated a large collection of plaques given to me by various military units and schools I have visited. All but one reside in the attic. The exception, which has pride of place in the imperial Library, was presented to me by the Marine Corps’ Scout/Sniper School. Why is it special to me? Because they didn’t buy it, they made it.

Last week, my favorite comic strip, Dilbert, disappeared from my morning paper, the Cleveland Plain Dealer. In its place was simply a gray box. Had the Plain Dealer dealt plainly, it would have stamped “Censored” on the box. Instead, it offered a joke better than those in the banned strip, saying the censorship was not an example of “cancel culture.” Big Brother himself could not have told a bigger lie.

Some years ago, I commanded Red in a Marine Corps war game at Quantico. When I was asked what weapon systems I wanted, I requested Zeppelins, on the grounds that it is impossible to wage modern war without airships. The Chinese just showed us why.

As regular readers know, on January 27 of every year I telephone my reporting senior, Kaiser Wilhelm II, to congratulate him on his birthday. I always start with the number for the Neues Palais in Potsdam, but der Reisekaiser is often traveling and my call must set out in hot pursuit of him. Such was the case again this year, when the first words I heard were, "Verspätet! Verspätet! How can the Imperial Train be later? Are Poles now running the Prussian State Railways?" The voice was Bismarck's. It was coming from a distance, but there was no problem hearing his words or his mood.

An article in the December 9, 2022 Wall Street Journal brought some rare good strategic news about the war in Ukraine. It seems that a few of Ukraine’s allies understand that a complete Russian defeat could bring about the dissolution of the Russian state, and that this represents the worst possible outcome.

. . . Not Donald.

I voted for President Trump in the 2016 Ohio primary, the general election that year and again in 2020. I contributed to his campaign both times. I think he was a successful President and would have been more successful had he not been repeatedly sabotaged by people in his own White House and in the broader Deep State. Had he been re-elected in 2020, I doubt there would be a war in Ukraine today, among other benefits.

Yes, I know there are many issues at stake in next week’s elections: inflation, the economy, crime, securing the southern border, and so on. But these all pale into insignificance in the face of one other issue, one that is not overtly on the ballot and has hardly even been mentioned. What is it? Preserving freedom of thought and expression.

Words have many meanings, and knowing their meanings is indispensable in any search for truth. More, some words have semi-secret, “coded” meanings, known only to the Illuminati of a cult. And while all words can be used to tell the truth or to lie, some words are themselves lies (one example is “homophobia:” unreasoning fear and moral disapproval are two very different things).

As of this writing (September 12), Ukraine's counter offensives appear to be succeeding. The widely telegraphed offensive in the south is making some progress. But it looks as if its primary role was deception, where it has already succeeded because Russia responded by drawing down its forces in eastern Ukraine, opening the door for the main Ukrainian counteroffensive. That is moving forward at Blitzkrieg pace, to the point where Russian units are disintegrating. All this is, of course, wonderful news for Ukraine and for anyone who wants to see David beat Goliath.

The September issue of the Marine Corps Gazette includes an article for which there has been a long-standing need, namely an accurate recounting of the history of maneuver warfare’s evolution into official Marine Corps doctrine.  Written under the pen name Marinus as part of an ongoing series, the Maneuverist Papers, it does what none of the books on the subject have managed, namely provide a non-partisan account that identifies all the streams that fed into the maneuver warfare river.