It is natural for wars to draw observers into ever-more detailed studies of their events and potential lessons from them. But the result can be an instinct for the capillaries that leaves war’s larger issues neglected. I think that is happening now with the wars in Ukraine and Gaza. If we stand back away from the details and look at the big picture from an American perspective, what do we see?

As regular readers know, every year I telephone my reporting senior, Kaiser Wilhelm II, on his birthday, January 27, to offer my best wishes. Such readers also know that His Majesty likes to surprise me. Well, he did. When I got out of bed the morning of the 23rd, I found out why: a naval Zeppelin, L-70, was hovering about twenty feet above my chimney. Luckily, there were no sparks.

In 1985, I published the Maneuver Warfare Handbook. It is still in print almost forty years later and it has been translated into more than ten other languages, most recently in Russian and Ukrainian. I now have the pleasure of announcing, not its replacement, but a supplement: The New Maneuver Warfare Handbook.

As of this writing, Israeli forces have penetrated Gaza city and are on their way to taking northern Gaza. Tactically, they are succeeding, as state forces usually do against 4GW opponents. In the process, they are losing at the moral level, also as state forces usually do. The result promises to be that, at the strategic level, Israel will defeat itself. That is the 4GW trap.

Shortly after World War I, a British officer said, “Thank God that’s over. Now we can get back to real soldiering.” That expresses the U.S. armed forces’ attitude towards Fourth Generation war, war waged by entities other than the states, following our withdrawal from Afghanistan. Hamas’s deadly raid on Israel, the worst defeat Israel has suffered since the early days of the 1973 war, has put 4GW back front-and-center, whether state armed forces like it or not.

Since the 1960s cultural Marxism, aka “Political Correctness” or “wokeism,” has been on the offensive, trying to destroy every aspect of our traditional, Judeo-Christian, Western culture. Conservatives have largely responded with a passive defense, which merely slows, not stops, the cultural Marxists. If we want to win, we have to strike back. Here are three ways to do so:

The papers are full of reports that the Ukrainians have broken through on their southern front, opening the way for an armored offensive on the operational level. Such an offensive could seek either to destroy the Russian army by getting between it and the Russian border, or go for a terrain objective such as the coast of the Sea of Azov. From a maneuver warfare perspective the former is preferable, although I think the latter is more likely. Aiming for the Sea of Azov is much easier logistically; rolling out behind the whole Russian army leaves Ukraine’s logistics train following in trace with whatever Russian units hold together on its left flank.

No one familiar with the war in the east 1941-45 can fail to see parallels between events then and now. The similarities are obvious. Ukraine is smaller than Russia, its army is smaller, and it has less, although better equipment. The Ukrainian army seems to be following the German way of war, maneuver warfare, or at least trying to. It does appear to have developed the culture maneuver warfare requires, where results are more important than methods, decision-making is decentralized, initiative is desired more than obedience and it all rests on self rather than imposed discipline. I find it interesting that a Slavic army seems able to do this; could the Russian army do the same?

The Prigozhin putsch was a crack in the Russian dam, the dam being the Russian state. So far, the dam is holding. But behind it are the swirling, dirty currents of Fourth Generation war, in the form of all the non-state loyalties and entities that will flood over Europe and Asia if the dam falls.

As almost everybody knows, a black swan is a new term for an unexpected event that has major consequences. Like avian black swans, such events are rare. But when they hit, panic, overreaction, and demands for safety at any price tend to follow. Think of Wall Street in October of 1929.

Ukraine and its allies have been prepping the propaganda battlefield for months about Kiev’s big spring offensive, or counter-offensive if you prefer. The ghosts of Kursk have been gathering over the scene, warning about attacks which are predictable and made where the Russians have been able to prepare extensive defensive positions. This time, will the Leopard tank be what the Tiger Elephant was last time?

Over the years I’ve accumulated a large collection of plaques given to me by various military units and schools I have visited. All but one reside in the attic. The exception, which has pride of place in the imperial Library, was presented to me by the Marine Corps’ Scout/Sniper School. Why is it special to me? Because they didn’t buy it, they made it.

Last week, my favorite comic strip, Dilbert, disappeared from my morning paper, the Cleveland Plain Dealer. In its place was simply a gray box. Had the Plain Dealer dealt plainly, it would have stamped “Censored” on the box. Instead, it offered a joke better than those in the banned strip, saying the censorship was not an example of “cancel culture.” Big Brother himself could not have told a bigger lie.

Some years ago, I commanded Red in a Marine Corps war game at Quantico. When I was asked what weapon systems I wanted, I requested Zeppelins, on the grounds that it is impossible to wage modern war without airships. The Chinese just showed us why.

As regular readers know, on January 27 of every year I telephone my reporting senior, Kaiser Wilhelm II, to congratulate him on his birthday. I always start with the number for the Neues Palais in Potsdam, but der Reisekaiser is often traveling and my call must set out in hot pursuit of him. Such was the case again this year, when the first words I heard were, "Verspätet! Verspätet! How can the Imperial Train be later? Are Poles now running the Prussian State Railways?" The voice was Bismarck's. It was coming from a distance, but there was no problem hearing his words or his mood.

An article in the December 9, 2022 Wall Street Journal brought some rare good strategic news about the war in Ukraine. It seems that a few of Ukraine’s allies understand that a complete Russian defeat could bring about the dissolution of the Russian state, and that this represents the worst possible outcome.

. . . Not Donald.

I voted for President Trump in the 2016 Ohio primary, the general election that year and again in 2020. I contributed to his campaign both times. I think he was a successful President and would have been more successful had he not been repeatedly sabotaged by people in his own White House and in the broader Deep State. Had he been re-elected in 2020, I doubt there would be a war in Ukraine today, among other benefits.

Yes, I know there are many issues at stake in next week’s elections: inflation, the economy, crime, securing the southern border, and so on. But these all pale into insignificance in the face of one other issue, one that is not overtly on the ballot and has hardly even been mentioned. What is it? Preserving freedom of thought and expression.

Words have many meanings, and knowing their meanings is indispensable in any search for truth. More, some words have semi-secret, “coded” meanings, known only to the Illuminati of a cult. And while all words can be used to tell the truth or to lie, some words are themselves lies (one example is “homophobia:” unreasoning fear and moral disapproval are two very different things).

As of this writing (September 12), Ukraine's counter offensives appear to be succeeding. The widely telegraphed offensive in the south is making some progress. But it looks as if its primary role was deception, where it has already succeeded because Russia responded by drawing down its forces in eastern Ukraine, opening the door for the main Ukrainian counteroffensive. That is moving forward at Blitzkrieg pace, to the point where Russian units are disintegrating. All this is, of course, wonderful news for Ukraine and for anyone who wants to see David beat Goliath.