Why Did He do it?

Throughout his Presidential campaigns, President Trump promised he would keep us out of avoidable wars on the far side of the world. He repeated that promise in his National Security Strategy and National Defense Strategy, both official documents. Reportedly, he is now saying privately he wished he had never attacked Iran. So why did he do it?

It was not because American interests in the Persian Gulf were threatened on February 27. We have only one significant interest in the Gulf, namely that the oil, fertilizer, aluminium, etc. keep flowing outward smoothly. On February 27, they were doing so. Since February 28, those flows have stopped. In other words, by launching a surprise attack on Iran, we have undermined our own interests. Again, why did President Trump do that?

I see three possibilities. First, President Trump's decision-making process, if he has one, is chaotic. Certainly, he is a weathervane on minor matters. But keeping us out of avoidable wars is not a minor matter. It has been central to his Presidency. Would bats in the belfry lead him to make so great a reversal in his fundamental policy, one he had to know would alienate much of his base? I don't think so. He's not yet President Biden.

Second, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu fooled him into believing Iran was on the verge of having an ICBM with a nuclear warhead that could reliably target the United States. This too I don't find credible. After decades in New York real estate, Mr. Trump is going to fall for baloney from, well, a Jew? He did not get into Washington on a truckload of turnips. U.S. intelligence was telling him Iran was a long way from such a capability. And yes, the mullahs are nuts, but would they really try to hit the United States with a nuclear weapon when they have to know that would bring the end not only of 2500 years of Persian culture but also Shiite Islam? They may not care about the former, but they certainly care about the latter.

A third possibility is that the Israelis have something on him, something big enough to bring an end to his Presidency. Here, there is an indication that points this way. After President Trump made the decision for war but before we Pearl Harbored Iran, Tucker Carlson met with him to try to dissuade him from doing it. According to the Wall Street Journal, Mr. Trump seemed to Carlson to be “sad” and “resigned” words that suggest he was doing something he did not want to do. That is credible given the centrality of “no more stupid wars (that we lose)” to his Presidency. He made the decision for war shortly after two meetings with Netanyahu. What did Netanyahu say to him in those meetings? Did he threaten him enough to make him go to war? What was the threat? We don't know, and we may not know until archives are opened to historians many years from now. Unless, of course, Mr. Trump does the only thing he can to get out of a losing war and makes a separate peace with Iran, leaving Israel and Tehran to lob V2s back and forth at each other for however long they want to. At that point, the Israelis might make public whatever they have on the President, if they have something.

Whether this is the explanation for a war I cannot otherwise explain, I do not know. But it is the most credible explanation I can think of. I hate to think/believe the United States went to war to cover a President's personal peccadilloes. That would likely motivate enough Republicans to join the Democrats in voting to impeach, convict, and remove President Trump from office. As, frankly, it should.