The War That Matters
While America has focused on the war with Iran, which we have lost, the war that really matters has largely vanished from our scope. Which war is that? The war in Ukraine.
The reason the war in Ukraine matters is not because Ukraine might lose. Who rules in Kiev means little for American interests. It matters because it now looks possible that Russia might lose, and the effects of a Russian defeat could impact the United States all too literally, as in nuclear weapons landing on American cities.
When Russia invaded Ukraine and Ukraine choose to resist, a Russian victory seemed just a matter of time. As an old military saying goes, God is usually on the side with the bigger battalions. Russia overmatched Ukraine in every respect. Even the usual incompetence of the Russian army at wars' outsets did not seem sufficient to give Ukraine a fighting chance.
Then something changed: the proliferation of small, cheap but effective drones worked greatly to the advantage of the defense. Russia, as the invader, was on the offense. Russian offensives worked as the had worked since World War II, with attacks by massed armored vehicles. But those armored vehicles proved highly vulnerable to drone attacks because tanks are heavily armored only on their frontal glacis and the drones hit elsewhere. Ukrainian battlefields soon became graveyards for Russian armor.
The Russian army adapted by launching infantry attacks using infiltration tactics. But the drones became so numerous that the Ukrainians could target individual Russian infantrymen. So the war stalemated on all fronts, which meant Russia was losing.
Now, Ukrainian drones and missiles are taking the war deep into Russia, hitting oil refineries and other targets whose damage directly affects Russia's civilian population. European Russians are now waiting in long lines to get gas, and in Crimea all civilian gas sales have stopped. Russian President Putin hoped to fight this war the way Frederick the Great of Prussia did, "So that my people do not know it is going on." That's ended.
What his all adds up to is a Russian defeat. Foolish Americans such as the neo-cons will welcome this. But anyone who understands even a modicum of Russian history, and Fourth Generation war, will see great danger ahead.
Lost wars have a history of bringing instability to Russia. Russia's defeat by Japan in 1905 brought widespread rebellion that almost turned into revolution. Defeat in World War I brought not only revolution and the overthrow of the monarchy but Bolshevism, which turned Russia into one vast death camp from 1918 until the death of Stalin. Hitler killed 6 million, but Soviet Communism killed 60 million (funny how we hear all the time about the former but never the latter).
If Russia loses the war in Ukraine, Putin's ouster is highly likely. It is highly unlikely that his (probably fatal) removal from power will usher in Russian liberalism. His replacement will probably be more hard line, someone who will win in Ukraine at any cost, including employing nuclear weapons.
That will break a taboo that is directly important for American interests. But it is by no means the worst thing that can happen. The worst possible outcome is the collapse of the Russian state itself into a witches' brew of Fourth Generation wars, one where many entities, inside and outside Russia, will be able to get their hands on nuclear weapons and delivery systems that can drop them on American cities. And will, leaving us with no address of who sent them and thus no target for retaliation. Goodbye MAD.
This will be a high price indeed for us to pay for meddling in other peoples' business, a habit we have fallen into under both political parties. We have done a great deal to bring about a Russian defeat in Ukraine. Our most vital interest, the safety of Americans in their own homes, now requires a Russian victory, or at least the avoidance of a Russian defeat. The Blob will not grasp this until, after nukes land on American cities, it is being strung up from lampposts. Will President Trump get it and act accordingly? If he fails and Russia loses and disintegrates, he may have passed politically from the scene but his name will rival Woodrow Wilson's as America's worst President.