The Israeli-American-Iranian War: A 4GW Perspective

Yesterday President Donald Trump broke faith with his voters and took the United States into another war in the Middle East.  Worse, as his announcement of the airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities made clear, he did so by making the U.S. once again the slave of Israel’s Likud Party and the neocons who serve as Likud’s American enforcers.  This is everything I and millions of other American voters put Mr. Trump in the White House to end.  

Ironically, America’s entry into the war occured the same day that Iran reportedly agreed to terms that solved the Iranian nuclear problem.  The June 21-22 Wall Street Journal wrote that:

Trump administration special envoy Steve Witkoff presented Iran with a proposal this past week that would require it to stop enriching uranium but would give it access to fuel enriched elsewhere by a regional consortium. . .

Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty discussed the U.S. proposal and Iran’s response on separate calls with Witkoff and (Iranian Foreign Minister) Araghchi on Tuesday and Friday.  Iran said it was willing to cap its enrichment at 3.67%, a level consistent with civilian uses, but wouldn’t give it up, said the Arab and European officials.  That position hasn’t been acceptable to the U.S.

Why not?  Enrichment to 3.67% is useless in creating a nuclear weapon.  The threat has not been all Iranian enrichment, but enrichment to 60%, which is close to the 90% required to make a bomb.  If Iran has agreed to limit its enrichment to the level required by a nuclear power plant (it has one and plans more), there is no causes belli.  President Trump has gotten us into a war for no reason.

How does all this relate to Fourth Generation war?  The question 4GW theory raises is to what degree do events to this point raise the danger of state disintegration in the three countries involved?  That danger is greatest in Iran because so far it has been losing the war.  A defeat can bring down not only a regime but a state itself.  Iran is not a unitary state; ethic Persians make up only about half the population, and non-Persian separatist movements already existed before the current war began.  If defeat brings down the Iranian state, stateless chaos will absorb yet another Middle Eastern country as it already has Libya, Syria, and Iraq.  American or NATO military action played a role in those cases as it will have in Iran.

It would be easy to say there is no danger from this war to the legitimacy of the state in Israel or the U.S., but that is not the case.  The Israeli public is weary of constant war, and having to spend its nights in bomb shelters is not helping.  A majority of Israelis know the endless wars in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, and now Iran are being fought largely to keep Benjamin Netanyahu in office as Prime Minister.  His political future is in the hands of small parties that represent the ultra-Orthodox, who want to create a Greater Israel.  But at the same time those parties demand more war, their ultra-Orthodox constituents will not join the military and are exempt from the draft.  So they seek wars for other Israelis to fight.  This enormous moral contradiction is splintering Israel to the point where Jew fighting Jew is a genuine possibility. 

And that brings us to our country.  By abandoning his base and involving the country in yet another unnecessary war President Trump is telling Americans that no matter who you vote for, what you get will be more of the same.  There is nothing you can do through the ballot box that will really put America first, especially though not only when Israel is involved.

That is another blow to the legitimacy of the American state, and 4GW is all about legitimacy.  As I write, Iran’s response to the American attacks is still unknown.  If the regime is smart, it will not attack American forces in the region but publicize its offer to limit enrichment to 3.67%  The Europeans would probably get behind that, leaving the U.S. and Israel isolated.  If Iran does hit U.S. forces and the war escalates, with significant American casualties, Mr. Trump’s Presidency is effectively over.  In politics, when you lose your base, you’re done.  And that flushing sound you hear will be millions of MAGA hats going down the drain.