President Trump, Venezuela, and 4GW

The 19th century Italian statesman Cavour said, “You can do anything with bayonets except sit on them.” We currently have a large force, including an aircraft carrier and amphibious ships with Marines on board, sitting on their bayonets off the coast of Venezuela. They will soon have to make their move or come home. President Trump seems to desire the former. From a Fourth Generation war perspective, that involves a gamble the White House may not understand.

What the administration does seem to know is that Venezuela is a hollow state. It has been taken over from within by a typical form of Fourth Generation entity, drug cartels. They own the state from President Maduro on down (wasn’t it nice when maduro was only a cigar?)

However, President Trump does not seem to be aware that if the formal remnant of the state is taken down by an American attack, it may prove impossible for the U.S. or anyone else to re-create a state in Venezuela. We have seen this happen in Libya, Iraq, and Syria, although the latter may be on the road to statehood again, with support from President Trump. If the Venezuelan state vanishes, where does that leave us? Do we occupy the country? President Trump was elected to avoid such follies. Do we allow Venezuela to become a happy hunting ground for every variety of 4GW entity including Islamic 4GW organizations? How do we prevent it without sending tens or hundreds of thousands of troops to uphold whatever state form we are able to create, which will lack legitimacy because it will be a foreign creation? How do we get out? without the cartels dancing on our Marines’ graves?

Our plan for attacking Venezuela probably assumes airstrikes will be sufficient to bring down the Maduro
regime while leaving the state standing. But on my old Modern War television show, the then-Chief of Staff of the Air Force, General McPeak, said, “Historically, air power has overpromised and underdelivered.” That remains true, Maduro has already gone into hiding. What if air and missile strikes don’t do the job? We would have to try action on the ground, probably in the form of raids by Special Forces. But if just one raid goes wrong and we have American soldiers captured by Venezuela, what then? The American public will focus on those soldiers and the need to bring them home. How do we plan to do
that without giving whatever it Venezuela demands for them?

I would feel a great deal more comfortable if I knew the White House was asking these questions before it acts — and demanding credible answers, not the usual air power whitewash. Its better to examine your mess kit now rather than having to eat from it after you’ve crapped in it.

Fourth Generation war is above all a contest for legitimacy. An American attack on Venezuela will give the Maduro regime, now widely loathed in the country, a new legitimacy. It may not be enough to save him, but it might be. Asking the Venezuelan people to chose between a leader who is incompetent and corrupt but at the same time one of their own, and a foreign country that is bombing their country, is chancy. War always involves risks, but risks are different from gambles. Attacking
Venezuela looks to me like a gamble.

If we do it, which I hope we don’t, success will depend on President Trump getting lucky.