A Way Out — William S. Lind
As of this writing (April 12), President Trump is well hoist on his own petard. Iran has won the first round in the war Mr. Trump started, a war of choice waged in the interests of a foreign power. Iran has survived all we and Israel could throw at it, it can still rain V-weapons on both Israel and its Persian Gulf neighbors, and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. We are again seeing what has become the American pattern: tactical victories coupled with strategic defeat.
The question now is how do we get out of this avoidable war with at least some of our tailfeathers intact. Again, my old friend Bismarck rides to the rescue. It was common in such situations in the 19th century to avoid further conflict by turning the problem over to a consortium of the Great Powers. In this case, the consortium would begin with the three Great Powers, the U.S., China and Russia. Other countries could join if they chose. The security of the Persian Gulf, including the Strait of Hormuz, would be guaranteed by the consortium. Should any country or 4GW entity threaten Gulf shipping, it would face military action by the whole consortium. China would join the consortium because it relies on Persian Gulf oil. Russia would probably join because it would reduce its isolation and China would ask it to. Other Asian countries would come in because they need the oil, as would the EU. It is not hard to envision a permanent Gulf squadron made up of warships from half-a-dozen countries. Bismarck would be smiling down from heaven.
Perhaps the most important immediate lesson for the United States is that air power always over-promises and under-delivers. It has done so in every post-Korean War conflict and it always will. Frankly, the Air Force is a scam. Notice that the plane the Air Force hates the most, the A-10, is back playing a key role in suppressing the Iranian mosquito fleet. The notion that F-35s can do that job is a howler.
People who know nothing of war, including President Trump, get sucked into the hi-tech, air power “clean” war fallacy every time. The endless “We’re Number One” cheers the U.S. military drills into politicians gets taken for gospel. Actually believing that crap, despite our won-lost record, they start another war of choice and once again lose at the strategic level.
The consortium idea can get us out of the latest debacle, but unless we fundamentally change the way our political leaders think about war, we will just jump back into the briar patch with the next tar baby. That means our armed services have to start telling politicians the truth about what we can do and, more importantly, what we can’t. Endless “We’re the greatest” cheers are fine for pep rallies, but they serve our political leaders and the nation poorly.