An old German saying warns that prediction is extremely difficult, especially when it involves the future. But my track record so far has been pretty good, so here goes. I predict that Donald Trump will not be the Republican nominee in 2020.
I don’t think this will happen because of impeachment. The House will impeach the President, because the Democrats control the House. But unless they come up with something far more serious than a few words in a telephone conversation, the Senate will not vote to convict. Nor should they; this impeachment is partisan politics, nothing more. The Founders intended impeachment as a remedy only for the most dire cases, and this does not come close to qualifying. Both Lyndon Johnson and Bill Clinton probably committed murder, and neither was removed from office by impeachment.
Could we see some other type of action by the Deep State to remove the President? It’s possible, but they would need a legal fig leaf of some sort to cover up the coup, and it is difficult to see what that might be.
More likely is a crisis in the President’s health. He is not a young man, his diet does not appear to be a healthy one, and the stress he faces every day as the Establishment howls for his head must be enormous. Donald Trump is a fighter, and to some extent he relishes a fight. But when you find yourself undermined, spied on, and sabotaged by everyone around you–just how many people were listening in to that phone conversation?–it must be wearing, to say the least. How long his frame can take it is an open question.
The most likely reason Mr. Trump will not be the Republican nominee is related to the health issue. He will decide not to run because it just isn’t fun anymore.
The stress and strain from being under constant attack is part of that. But there’s more. Mr. Trump is guided largely by his instincts. And for the most part, his instincts lead him in good directions. He has avoided another war, despite the fervent desire of the neo-cons to push him into one (or two or three). He wants to get out of the wars we are in, though so far he cannot overcome the Establishment’s desire that we stay the course, presumably ‘till hell freezes over. He has confronted China about its unfair trade practices, something previous Presidents should have done but were chicken. He recognizes that the main threat we face is excessive immigration, and is finally getting some results in his efforts to control our borders.
But a man guided by his instincts is also impulsive. President Trump has shown that is true of him. And I can easily see him making an impulsive decision, possibly quite late in the game, to say the hell with the whole mess that is Washington and not run. He would need an assurance from the Republican nominee of a Presidential pardon, should he require one. That should not be difficult to obtain. In fact, it would be smart of the Democrats to offer the same, since he will most likely defeat whomever they nominate if he does run. But they aren’t that smart.
If my prediction proves correct, who should the Republicans nominate? It must be someone who is anti-Establishment, because the real political division now is Establishment/anti-Establishment, much more than Democrat/Republican or even liberal/conservative. Vice President Pence is conservative but Establishmentarian. He is also a wooden public speaker with no charisma or evident leadership potential. The Bob Dole nomination should be fresh enough in the Republican Party’s memory not to repeat that blunder.
My suggestion would be a Tucker Carlson/Tulsi Gabbard ticket. Carlson is anti-Establishment, conservative (not neocon), and a major public figure. Coming from outside Washington is a plus. Rep. Gabbard must know she will never get a Democratic Party nomination. The ticket could present itself as bi-partisan, which would appeal to the millions of Americans sick of partisanship. It would be an anti-war ticket, and also anti-Wall Street; Carlson recognizes that the concentration of wealth in the .1% is a populist issue. It would offer everything President Trump does, without the Trumpian downsides. Most important, the voters who usually don’t vote but did come out to vote for Trump would do the same for Carlson.
Such is my rash prediction. If I’m wrong, it won’t be the first time. But if I’m right, it won’t be the first time for that either, especially when everyone else predicted the opposite.
Interested in what Fourth Generation war in America might look like? Read Thomas Hobbes’ new future history, Victoria.